Description: This abstract describes a paper that illustrates that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that focuses on the frequency of drawdowns.

Description: An excerpt from the 2002 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds which describes the basic methodology and assumptions used in the estimates for the intermediate assumptions. Also, projections of program costs are presented under two alternate sets of assumptions.

Description: Enterprise risk managers should explicitly relate the firm’s business model to the risk supported by the economic capital. The economic capital, risk drivers and business model are intricately integrated. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate this point.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: The zeta distribution with regression parameters has been rarely used in statistics because of the difficulty of estimating the parameters by traditional maximum likelihood. This is the abstract of a paper that proposes an alternative method for estimating the parameters based on an iteratively reweighted least-squares algorithm.

Description: Improving understanding of the complex relationships among financial entities is critically important for risk managers and for financial authorities charged with multiple policy objectives. High quality information is lacking at both the intra- and inter-enterprise levels and to support analysis of the financial network. Put simply, the current quality and quantity of relationship data is not sufficient to deliver on the ultimate objectives. For the purpose of this discussion we use a very generic definition of a term relationship somewhat similar to the definition used to describe human relationships. And like in the human relationships case we will not claim that only marriage and blood connection makes your relatives, but also loaning a book, loving, hating and sharing a flat. In the financial context, the relationships may be determined by accounting rules set, for example, by IFRS or US GAAP, as well as regulatory requirements in areas o f risk management, market integrity, know-your-client, network analysis and statistical consolidation. The financial industry and regulators have spent countless hours arguing and debating the definition of ownership. The problem lies in the question itself. We suggest that as part of any relationship data system the best approach is to put the question aside and avoid a conceptual and practical quagmire. Rather, we recommend collecting and storing less-subjective granular data on theactual legal and economic relationships between firms, which provides a flexibleframework from which any user can answer the question on corporate relationships he or she determines is appropriate at a given time. Encouragingly, technological solutions are available to accommodate this multiplicity of requirements in a single solution. The paper outlines where the practical challenges are that inhibit the development of high quality relationship data and how they can be overcome.

Description: We demonstrate an integrated enterprise risk management (ERM) solution to optimize the risk portfolio, identify natural hedges, create an optimal risk treatment plan, enhance risk culture, and facilitate risk reporting throughout the organization.

Description: This paper develops the binomial version of the Lee-Carter model and provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks.

Description: Full table of contents for issue number one of volume number one of The Record of the Society of Actuaries. The content in this issue were taken from the Los Angeles, CA meeting held March 20-21, 1975.